Cedar Chain Lakes — sample scorecard
Fictional properties. Every address, price and finding here is invented to demonstrate the model.
Your budget
Set this first — it is an input, never stored in the file. Budget fit is DERIVED from it, so the ceiling moves the ranking just as the weights below do. It travels in a share link so whoever you send this to sees the same model.
Weights — drag to re-weight, the whole page updates live
Every score, rank and colour below recalculates as you move these. These are a fixed pool: raising one weight lowers the others, so the total is always 100% and every trade-off is visible. Lock 🔒 a dimension to hold it while you adjust the rest.
Start from scratch — sort the ten by how much they matter
Setting ten numbers is hard; sorting ten things is easy. Put each dimension in a bucket and the weights are derived from that — then fine-tune with the sliders.
Overall value score
Ranked best to worst. Hover any bar for the headline read. A ▲/▼ chip means your weighting moved that property up or down versus the analyst's default. Rule a property out from the ⋯ menu on its row — it drops to the bottom, stops competing in the ranking and the sensitivity read, and keeps every word of its analysis.
How solid is this ranking?
Stated weights are guesses, so the more useful question is not what are my weights but what would have to be true for the answer to change. For each property below: the smallest single change to one weight that would put it in first place. A property that flips on a two-point move is not really behind; one that cannot be moved at all is genuinely out.
Score matrix — where each property wins and loses
Darker means a stronger score. Hover any cell for the reasoning behind it.
Can it hit ~2,500 sq ft inside your budget?
Scored against the all-in ceiling set at the top of this page. All-in = a realistic negotiated purchase + renovation + any addition/ADU + closing, against your ceiling. Addition costs use 2026 ranges: ground-level bump-out $80–200/sq ft, second storey $300–500/sq ft, detached ADU $150–250/sq ft — pushed toward the upper end here for lakefront sites, slope and septic.
The read on each
Show the full numeric table (accessible view)
How to read this. The score compresses the judgement in each due-diligence brief into one comparable number; every sub-score is defensible from the research in that brief. Price vs. market asks whether the ask is supportable against comps — not whether the property is cheap. Risk is scored so higher = safer. Scores move as facts land, so a rebuilt brief updates its row here. Planning research only — not an appraisal or investment advice.
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Sample brief. Every address, figure and finding below is invented. It exists to show the shape of a real brief and the moves the method makes — not to describe any actual property.
14 Harrow Point Rd, Marlow · MLS SAMPLE-001 · listing (fictional)
Executive summary
Three findings move the decision more than anything in the listing copy.
- The dock is grandfathered, not permitted. The current structure predates the 2011 shoreline ordinance and is legal only while it stands. Rebuild it — or let storm damage take it — and the replacement falls under the current 60 ft projection limit, which would cost roughly 14 ft of the existing reach. Confirm with the town before assuming the dock you see is the dock you keep.
- The fourth bedroom is achievable, but the septic is the constraint, not the walls. The walkout has the volume and the egress window. The system is sized for three bedrooms, so the bedroom you want costs a septic expansion — $18–34K — not a partition.
- It is priced at the top of its own comp bucket. $985K against four true-lakefront sales on this shore between $402 and $478 per sq ft. At 2,180 sq ft the ask is $452 — defensible, not cheap, and there is no distress here to trade on: 59 days on market, no cut, one owner since 2009.
The headline read: this is the benchmark property in the sample set and the model puts it first. Target lake, the road archetype the profile describes, clean water, and a legal path to the program. What you are paying for is the absence of problems rather than any single spectacular feature, which is a defensible thing to buy and a hard thing to negotiate against. As-is $940K–$1.01M. An opening at $935K is arguable; below $900K is not.
Snapshot
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Ask | $985,000 ($452/sq ft) |
Beds / baths / size | 3 / 2.5 / 2,180 sq ft |
Lot | 1.0 acre, wooded, gentle grade to the water |
Built | 1978, substantially renovated 2019 |
Frontage | 112 ft, owned to the waterline — no crossing |
Water / sewer | Drilled well; private septic, 3-bedroom |
Taxes | $9,240 |
Listed | 18 June 2026, MLS SAMPLE-001 — 59 days, no price change |
Value score | 7.45 / 10 at the default weighting |
1. Title, boundaries & access
Frontage conveys in fee to the waterline — the parcel encompasses the mean high water mark, so dock and mooring rights sit with the owner rather than with an association. This is the benchmark case and it is worth stating plainly, because the two comps that look cheaper on paper do not have it.
No road crossing. The lawn runs from the house to the water. Harrow Point Road ends at the property; there is no through traffic and no crossing to reach the shore — the configuration the profile asks for and the one the model scores highest.
- Confirm: a utility easement along the north boundary appears on the tax map but not in the listing. Get the survey and establish its width and whether it is exercisable.
- Confirm: the shared driveway serving the two uphill lots. Maintenance appears informal; ask for the recorded agreement, or establish that there is not one.
2. Condition & disclosure
The 2019 renovation covered kitchen, baths, windows and mechanicals. What it did not cover is the envelope: roof is original 1978 architectural shingle at the end of its service life, and the crawlspace has no vapour barrier.
Three disclosure items are marked Unknown — always the most informative part of a disclosure, because they are what the seller declines to warrant:
- Prior water intrusion in the lower level — Unknown. With a lakeside crawlspace and no vapour barrier, treat this as a yes until an inspection says otherwise.
- Age of the septic leach field — Unknown. Material, given the bedroom question below.
- Underground fuel storage — Unknown. A 1978 lake house may well have a buried oil tank. Line up a tank sweep; abandonment costs $2–4K, remediation vastly more.
3. Zoning & use
Lakeshore Residential. One single-family dwelling plus one accessory dwelling unit is permitted, and the acre is comfortably over the minimum. Short-term rental requires an annual permit, issued administratively below 12 occupants.
The binding constraint is not zoning — it is the septic. Occupancy and bedroom count are sized by the system, so both the fourth bedroom and any STR occupancy above six people depend on the same expansion. Price them as one decision rather than two.
4. Renovation & cost to reach the program
Item | Range | Note |
|---|---|---|
Roof replacement | $21,000 – $28,000 | End of service life; not optional |
Crawlspace encapsulation | $6,000 – $11,000 | Ties to the water-intrusion Unknown |
Septic expansion to 4 bedrooms | $18,000 – $34,000 | The real cost of the fourth bedroom |
Walkout bedroom fit-out | $12,000 – $19,000 | Egress already exists |
Dock reserve | $0 – $40,000 | Zero if grandfathered status holds; a rebuild resets to current limits |
All-in at a negotiated $950K | $1.01M – $1.08M | Plus ~2.5% closing |
The dock line is a range that starts at zero and that is the honest way to carry it — it is a coin-flip on a fact you can establish before closing, not a cost you can average.
5. Comparable sales
The dominant driver on this lake is owned frontage versus deeded or across-road access. The buckets are kept apart because mixing them makes the $/sq ft meaningless.
Address | Sold | Date | Bd/Ba | Sq ft | $/sq ft | Bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$1,040,000 | May '26 | 4/3 | 2,180 | $477 | Owned frontage | |
$918,000 | Mar '26 | 3/2 | 2,285 | $402 | Owned frontage | |
$742,000 | Nov '25 | 4/3 | 2,640 | $281 | Deeded access, across road | |
$610,000 | Sep '25 | 3/2 | 2,100 | $290 | Shared access | |
$985,000 ask | — | 3/2.5 | 2,180 | $452 | Owned frontage |
The spread is the finding: owned frontage clears $402–$477 per sq ft here; access-only clears $281–$290. That is roughly a 35% discount for not owning the waterline, and it is why the frontage question is asked before the house is even looked at.
As-is value: $940,000 – $1,010,000. The direct neighbour at $477 sets the ceiling and is a newer four-bedroom; the subject should not exceed it.
6. Water quality
Scored separately from access, because the two are independent. Summer clarity has run 6.2–6.8 m over the last five seasons, phosphorus is low, and there is no bloom advisory on record for this basin. Near-shore weed is light and the lake association funds a harvesting programme.
Direction of travel matters as much as the level. Clarity has been stable, not declining — which is a different fifteen-year proposition from a lake that reads well today and is trending the wrong way.
7. Location & lifestyle
Destination | Distance | Typical drive |
|---|---|---|
Groceries, pharmacy | 6 mi | 11 min |
Hospital / ER | 14 mi | 22 min |
Nearest international airport | 58 mi | 1 hr 5 min |
Anchor city (family) | 41 mi | 52 min |
Ski hill | 33 mi | 40 min |
Winter access confirmed — Harrow Point Road is town-maintained and plowed to the end, which the two uphill comps cannot claim. Verified with the highway superintendent; the shared driveway beyond is the owners' responsibility.
8. Offer analysis
What pushes down: the roof is due, the crawlspace is unfinished, three disclosure Unknowns sit on the same lower level, and the fourth bedroom carries a septic cost the listing does not mention.
What supports the price: owned frontage with no crossing, a stable clear lake, a town-plowed road, and a 2019 renovation that already spent the money on the expensive interior systems.
What you do not have: leverage. 59 days is unremarkable here, there has been no cut, and one owner since 2009 means no distress and no reset counter to point at. This is a property to buy well rather than to buy cheaply — and saying so is more useful than manufacturing an argument the seller will not recognise.
Suggested position: open $935,000, justified on the roof, the crawlspace and the septic capacity — three quotable items, not an opinion about value. Tie the final number to the inspection so each becomes a credit. Contingencies: survey and the north easement, septic inspection with capacity stated in bedrooms, a written determination on the dock's grandfathered status, a tank sweep, and a bindable insurance quote.
9. Pre-offer checklist
- Survey — the north utility easement, its width and whether it is exercisable
- Recorded maintenance agreement for the shared driveway, or confirmation there is none
- Written determination on the dock's grandfathered status and what a rebuild would be limited to
- Septic inspection with capacity stated in bedrooms, plus the leach field's age
- Underground tank sweep
- Roof age and any remaining transferable warranty
- Bindable homeowner's insurance quote before removing contingencies
- Agent CMA with the MLS waterfront and frontage-feet fields — it supersedes the comp table above
Planning research only — not an appraisal, a title opinion, or legal or financial advice. Every item marked confirm needs verifying before you rely on it.
Why it scored the way it did
| Dimension | Score | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Location match | 9.0 | Same target lake, southern end. |
| Setting (private + sociable) | 5.5 | Amenity community — pool, tennis, houses close together. Reads well in the listing copy and scores LOWER here. |
| Waterfront use (access) | 8.0 | Level walk-in entry, deep-water dock. |
| Water quality (clarity · weeds · algae) | 8.5 | Same lake as Harrow Point; clarity comparable. |
| Interior character | 8.5 | Recently renovated, open plan, generous light. |
| Program fit | 8.5 | 4 bed / 3 bath at 2,600 sq ft as built. |
| Price vs. market | 4.5 | Ask sits above every comp in the association. |
| ADU & guest space | 7.0 | Finished lower level with a separate entrance; short-term rental barred by covenant. |
| Budget fit | 5.0 | Tight once the assessment history is priced in. |
| Everyday access | 7.5 | Best everyday access in the set. |
| Risk & unknowns | 5.0 | Association reserve study is three years overdue. |
Why it scored the way it did
| Dimension | Score | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Location match | 3.0 | Wrong lake, thirty-five minutes from the target area. |
| Setting (private + sociable) | 6.0 | Quiet, wooded, but nobody around to meet. |
| Waterfront use (access) | 8.5 | The easiest entry in the set — a level lawn straight into the water. |
| Water quality (clarity · weeds · algae) | 2.5 | Eutrophic. Summer Secchi ~1.9 m, dense milfoil on the shelf, blooms most Augusts with no harvesting programme. |
| Interior character | 5.0 | Serviceable, dated, low ceilings throughout. |
| Program fit | 6.5 | 3 bed / 2 bath at 1,900 sq ft, with room to add. |
| Price vs. market | 7.0 | Priced sensibly against its own shore. |
| ADU & guest space | 7.5 | Two-family permitted by right; municipal sewer removes the septic obstacle. |
| Budget fit | 9.5 | By far the most headroom of anything here. |
| Everyday access | 4.5 | Thin on services; twenty-five minutes to a supermarket. |
| Risk & unknowns | 4.5 | Shoreline erosion noted in the 2023 disclosure. |
Why it scored the way it did
| Dimension | Score | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Location match | 9.0 | Prime frontage on the target lake. |
| Setting (private + sociable) | 7.0 | Good road, mature trees, generous lot. |
| Waterfront use (access) | 8.0 | Level beach entry with a new dock. |
| Water quality (clarity · weeds · algae) | 8.5 | Best water in the sample set. |
| Interior character | 4.0 | Uninsulated seasonal camp; dark, compartmentalised, no central heat. |
| Program fit | 2.0 | 2 bed / 1 bath at 1,150 sq ft, and it cannot legally grow. |
| Price vs. market | 3.0 | The ask alone is {{pctOfCeiling:1490000}} of {{ceiling}}. |
| ADU & guest space | 1.0 | Prohibited outright by the sample zoning code. |
| Budget fit | 1.5 | Breaks the ceiling before any work. |
| Everyday access | 5.5 | Seasonal road; winter access unresolved. |
| Risk & unknowns | 2.5 | Nonconforming structure, septic within the setback, no permit history. |